Performance of the ForestGALES Model in Predicting Wind Damage Patterns in a New Zealand Radiata Pine Trial Following Cyclone Gabrielle

Under climate change, extreme wind events are predicted to become both more common and more severe, increasing the vulnerability of plantation forests. In February 2023, ex-tropical Cyclone Gabrielle caused widespread wind damage to radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) forests across the North Island of New Zealand, providing a rare opportunity to evaluate mechanistic wind-risk modelling under extreme storm conditions. This study assessed the performance of the ForestGALES model in predicting wind damage within the Rangipo genetic accelerator trial and examined the influence of stocking and cultivation on wind vulnerability. Using detailed pre-cyclone field measurements and high-resolution unmanned aerial vehicle light detection and ranging (ULS) data, ForestGALES was parameterised for the Rangipo trial and applied at both individual-tree and stand scales. Model predictions were compared with observed post-cyclone damage using balanced area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accounting for strong class imbalance. Wind damage was observed in 16.7% of trees, of which 10.2% showed stem breakage and 6.5% overturning. Across both spatial scales, overturning was more accurately predicted than stem breakage. At the individual-tree scale, ForestGALES showed moderate predictive skill, with balanced AUC values of 0.650 ± 0.014 for overturning, 0.595 ± 0.011 for breakage, and 0.621 ± 0.008 for total damage. Model performance was stronger at the stand scale, where discrimination was highest for overturning (AUC 0.811 ± 0.122), followed by breakage (0.693 ± 0.116) and total damage (0.623 ± 0.083). Silvicultural treatments significantly influenced predicted critical wind speeds (CWS). High-stocking treatments exhibited consistently higher CWS values and therefore greater wind firmness than low-stocking treatments, while cultivation effects were smaller but significant. Simulated reductions in stocking further demonstrated increased wind vulnerability as stocking declined, highlighting thinning as a primary determinant of wind risk. These findings demonstrate that ForestGALES can reliably discriminate wind damage at operational stand scales under extreme cyclone conditions and highlight the importance of stand structure in improving plantation resilience under increasingly storm-prone climates.