SUPPLY CHAIN VULNERABILITY AND OIL PRODUCTION STABILITY OF UPSTREAM PETROLEUM FIRMS IN RIVERS STATE

Abstract This study investigated the relationship between supply chain vulnerability and oil production stability of upstream petroleum firms in Rivers State, Nigeria. Supply chain vulnerability was operationalized through two dimensions: logistical vulnerability and operational vulnerability. Oil production stability was assessed through output consistency, regulatory compliance, and operational continuity. The study was anchored on Transaction Cost Theory and Dynamic Capabilities Theory. A correlational research design was adopted. The population comprised twenty (20) upstream petroleum firms in Rivers State. A census of 120 respondents was drawn, comprising operations managers, logistics managers, supply chain officers, and senior technical staff. Valid responses totalled 110, representing a response rate of 91.7%. Data were collected using structured questionnaires on a five-point Likert scale. Organizational resilience served as a contextual moderating variable. Analysis was conducted using Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) at a 0.05 level of significance. The findings revealed that logistical vulnerability has a strong negative and statistically significant relationship with oil production stability (r = -0.731, p < 0.05). Similarly, operational vulnerability demonstrated a significant negative relationship with oil production stability (r = -0.684, p < 0.05). The study concludes that supply chain vulnerabilities, particularly logistical and operational in nature, significantly impair oil production stability. It recommends investment in digital supply chain monitoring systems, diversified logistics networks, and adaptive maintenance protocols underpinned by organizational resilience mechanisms. Keywords: Supply chain vulnerability, Logistical vulnerability, Operational vulnerability, Oil production stability, Organizational resilience