Losing Trust: Can Bad Governance Explain the Rise of Populism?

This project examines the relationship between Quality of Government (QoG) and populist support, with trust in institutions as a mediator. While research has shown that higher QoG fosters trust and that populism thrives when trust is low, few studies evaluate a causal pathway linking objective measures of government performance to individual-level populist attitudes. Leveraging data on regional rail delays across 6 European countries and German road quality, this study models how regional variation in public service provision shapes trust and voting behavior. It also incorporates relative performance measures comparing a region to its neighbors to capture spatially grounded perceptions of disadvantage. Findings indicate that, in some instances, QoG is positively related to trust in government, which in turn is negatively associated with populist support. Contrary to expectations, regional aggrievement, which triggers populist support, is higher for those who reside in higher-performing regions adjacent to those in lower-performing regions