The relationship between alcohol consumption, social distancing, and crime rates: insights from the COVID-19 pandemic

Background: While there was a global shift in social interaction and alcohol consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic, their associations with changes in crime rates remain underexplored. We aimed to examine the associations between crime rates and alcohol use within the context of pandemic-related social distancing. Methods: We calculated crime rates across crime categories from 2011 to 2022 using crime statistics from the Korean National Police Agency. We estimated two linear regression models with the crime rate as the dependent variable. The first model examined the association of movie attendance (a proxy for social distancing) and the unemployment rate with crime rates. The second model additionally included per capita alcohol consumption to determine how the association between social distancing and crime rates was attenuated when accounting for alcohol use. Results: As of 2022, 19% of total crimes involved offenders under the influence of alcohol, with particularly high proportions in murder (64%), traffic accidents (47%), arson (32%), violence (28%), and rape (20%). Overall crime rates and offences committed under the influence of alcohol, which had steadily declined from 2011, fell sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both alcohol consumption and social interaction declined during the pandemic. While the rates of overall crime, violence, rape, traffic accidents, and arson were initially associated with social contact, these associations were no longer significant after adjusting for alcohol consumption; instead, strong positive associations with alcohol consumption were observed. The rate of murder was not significantly associated with social contact, but exhibited a significant association only with alcohol consumption. Conclusions: The concurrent declines in crime and alcohol consumption, along with the attenuating effect of alcohol in the relationship between social distancing and crime, suggest that addressing social drinking environments may be an effective strategy for reducing crime rates.