Numerical Weather Prediction of Hurricane Florence (2018) and Potential Climate Impacts Through Thermodynamic and Moisture Modification

Hurricane Florence (2018) proved to be a damaging tropical cyclone that formed off the coast of the Cabo Verde Islands. On 12 UTC 14 September 2018, Florence made landfall as a weakened category 1 Hurricane in Wrightsville Beach, NC. In the midst of landfall, Florence’s ground speed stalled considerably to near zero. Because of this stall, Florence continued to accumulate feet of rain along the coastline, and the inundation of seawater became extreme. Due to the impacts of Florence, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) was used to simulate the tropical cyclone and provide insight into the thermodynamics and dynamics that played a significant role at the time of landfall. After the control case, several sensitivity experiments were conducted. The historical sensitivity experiments utilize the thermodynamic and moisture fields of ERA5 reanalysis data from 1968 and 1998, respectively, to modify the thermodynamic and moisture fields in the initial conditions of the WRF–ARW control case. In addition, to study the potential future climate impacts of Florence, the NCAR CESM Global Bias-Corrected CMIP5 Output to Support WRF/MPAS Research dataset was utilized. The same approach was taken as the historical versions of Florence for sensitivity experiments for future climate, i.e., thermodynamic and moisture fields for both 2038 and 2068 under the RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Results suggest a corresponding intensity shift with minor track deflections. Based on these modifications, synoptic and mesoscale dynamics will be studied to provide insight into how Florence-like hurricanes may change based on certain climate scenarios.