Projected Changes in Urban Impacts on Summer Mean Temperature and Precipitation over Eastern North America

Urban–climate interactions in a warming climate remain largely uncertain; therefore, it is crucial to realistically evaluate and project these feedbacks to establish effective adaptation strategies. This study investigates projected shifts in summertime urban–climate interactions over eastern North America by employing the GEM regional climate model coupled with the Town Energy Balance (TEB) scheme, driven by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the 1981–2100 period. Evaluations for the current climate (1981–2010) demonstrate that the model simulates an urban-induced warming of 0.5–0.7 °C and a precipitation reduction of 0.2–0.4 mm/day with high fidelity. By the late 21st century (2071–2100), projections under the RCP8.5 scenario indicate a steady weakening of the summer mean Urban Heat Island (UHI) intensity by approximately 0.10 °C, with a more pronounced nighttime attenuation of 0.15 °C. Physically, this weakening is attributed to an enhanced urban-induced evaporative fraction, which limits solar radiation storage within the urban fabric during the day, thereby reducing the thermal energy available for post-sunset release. This UHI attenuation correlates strongly with localized increases in precipitation, particularly in coastal regions where urban-induced effects contribute 20–40% to the total precipitation rise. While this study intentionally utilizes static urban boundaries to isolate the specific sensitivities of current urban morphologies to global warming, these results emphasize that diverse climatological regions will undergo distinct urban–climate feedback changes, providing essential baseline data for resilient urban planning.