Beyond Traditional Distance Decay: A Dual-Component Mixture Model for Urban Park Accessibility

Distance-decay models are fundamental to accessibility modeling; yet their alignment with actual travel behavior remains insufficiently examined in empirical terms. To help address this gap, we propose a dual-component Tanner–Gaussian decay model that seeks to mitigate two key limitations of traditional accessibility frameworks by simultaneously describing the phenomena of full decay and local peaks. The model is calibrated using survey data from an urban park in Hangzhou, China, and subsequently assessed on two additional datasets from Wuhan and Shanghai. Results indicate that: (1) traditional Gaussian functions may overestimate short-distance and underestimate long-distance accessibility, while Tanner functions tend to capture long-tail decay more effectively and appear more suitable for long-distance accessibility estimation; (2) the proposed dual-component model performs favorably in large samples, though its stability appears sensitive to sample size. By comparing the application of multiple accessibility models across three datasets, we highlight how their suitability varies depending on the specific context. This comparison may offer a reference that could assist designers in identifying underserved areas and supporting more equitable access to urban green spaces in the context of rapid urbanization.