The impact of government land regulation on carbon emission intensity: mechanism and transmission path from a corporate environmental strategy perspective

Introduction Achieving China’s dual-carbon goals requires clearer evidence on how government land regulation affects citylevel carbon emission intensity and through which mechanisms this effect operates. Methods Using an unbalanced panel of 230 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2022 (N = 3,566), this study examines land supply regulation, land use purpose regulation, and land use intensity regulation. Land supply regulation is estimated with a correlated random effects (Mundlak CRE) model, while land use purpose regulation and land use intensity regulation are estimated with twoway fixed effects and Driscoll-Kraay standard errors. Mediation tests, moderation tests, regional heterogeneity analysis, system GMM, and robustness checks are also conducted. Results Stronger land supply regulation is associated with lower carbon emission intensity (beta = −50.153, p = 0.058), land use intensity regulation significantly reduces carbon emission intensity (beta = -0.026, p < 0.001), and greater land-use concentration increases carbon emission intensity (beta = 0.181, p = 0.016). Four of six a-paths from land regulation to corporate green behavior are significant, but all bpaths are insignificant after controlling for land regulation, so no detectable mediation effect is supported. Industrial structure upgrading significantly moderates five of six pathways from land regulation to corporate environmental strategy, and regional heterogeneity is also observed. Discussion Government land regulation affects urban carbon outcomes primarily through broader structural channels rather than a simple listed-firm mediation pathway. The findings support differentiated and region-specific land regulation portfolios and closer alignment between land policy and industrial structure upgrading.