Reshaping the solar PV supply chain: Adaptive network evolution driven by synergistic green policy portfolios

Solar photovoltaic (PV) supply chains play a crucial role in supporting the global energy transition and achieving China's carbon neutrality goals. However, despite the implementation of multiple green policy instruments such as the Emissions Trading Scheme, Green Electricity Trading, and Renewable Consumption Quotas, their combined effects on PV supply chain evolution remain insufficiently understood. To address this gap, this study develops an agent–network coupled dynamic model to capture how heterogeneous firm behavior and supply chain interactions respond to different green policy portfolios and shape system-level performance. The results reveal three key findings. First, single-policy interventions generally trigger short-term behavioral adjustments but fail to induce stable structural transitions in the supply chain system. Second, coordinated policy portfolios generate nonlinear amplification effects that simultaneously improve profitability, reduce carbon intensity, and enhance system resilience, thereby helping alleviate the profitability–decarbonization–resilience trilemma faced by PV supply chains. Third, although policy shocks may temporarily weaken system resilience in the early stages, coordinated policy mechanisms can drive long-term structural recovery and lead to significantly higher resilience over time. Overall, the sustainable transformation of PV supply chains depends less on the strength of individual policy instruments and more on the coordination among multiple policy tools that shape firm behavior and supply chain network evolution. These findings provide important policy implications for designing more effective green policy portfolios to support low-carbon industrial transitions. • Fragmented green policies trigger short-term responses but fail to sustain long-term investment and cooperation in PV supply chains. • An agent–network model examines how carbon pricing, green electricity trading, and quotas shape supply chain evolution. • Coordinated policies drive non-linear changes in firm behavior and network structure, enabling persistent cooperation. • Policy coordination outperforms single policies in decarbonization, economic returns, and system resilience. • PV supply chain transition depends on policy-induced feedback rather than isolated regulatory intensity.