Impact of fossil energy consumption on economic growth in carbon-resource economies: a Random Forest approach

The study examines the relationship between fossil energy consumption and economic growth in carbon-resource economies, with particular attention to energy intensity and efficiency in the context of sustainable development. A Random Forest model is applied to estimate the predictive relationship between GDP growth and fossil energy consumption using data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) for the period 2013–2023. The results indicate that energy intensity is positively associated with GDP growth in countries such as China, Russia, and Mongolia, while weaker or negative relationships are observed in more developed economies such as Canada and the United States. The findings suggest that energy-intensive economic structures are linked to short-term economic performance but may also indicate long-term sustainability challenges. These results highlight that the relationship between energy intensity and economic growth is not uniform but varies significantly across countries depending on their economic structure and level of development. In addition to macroeconomic implications, the findings are relevant for sustainable food systems. Fossil energy plays a key role in agricultural production through mechanization, fertilizer production, irrigation, food processing, and logistics. The observed relationships may therefore have indirect implications for food production costs, food security, and system resilience. The results suggest that improving energy efficiency and increasing the use of renewable energy in agri-food systems may support more sustainable and resilient food production while contributing to long-term economic stability.