Drought Analysis and Effects on Agriculture in the Finike District of Antalya

This study was conducted in the Finike district of Antalya province in the Mediterranean Region of Türkiye. Finike is important in terms of agricultural production, especially fruit cultivation. Therefore, a drought and trend analysis were carried out for the Finike district to determine the potential impact of climate change, which has started to show its negative effects increasingly in recent years. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) drought analysis was carried out using monthly total precipitation data between 1970 and 2023. The drought analysis was planned according to three-month (SPI-3) and six-month (SPI-6) time series. The hydrological year (October 1 – September 30) was accepted as the start and end of each year for the study. The three-month drought periods were divided into: October-November-December (P3A), January-February-March (P3B), April-May-June (P3C), and July-August-September (P3D). The six-month periods were similarly categorised as: October through March (P6A) and April through September (P6B). Additionally, three- and six-month periods were created for average, maximum, and minimum monthly temperature values for the years between 1970 and 2023. The Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis test was applied to the index and temperature values obtained in these periods. It was determined with the research that SPI-3 and SPI-6 values generally fell within the "Normal Drought" (ND) severity category, and no statistically significant trend changes were observed. The SPI-3 and SPI-6 values revealed that the longest drought periods occurred during 1972–1974, 1989–1991, and 2015–2017. The three- and six-month analyses showed that there was an increase in the number of drought events and the frequency of severe droughts during the P3C and P6B periods, especially between 2010 and 2023. The results of the temperature trend analysis revealed an increasing trend in temperatures across all periods. From an agricultural perspective, the findings suggest that plant water consumption needs are expected to increase during the summer months in Finike. Therefore, relevant measures must be taken to meet the water requirements of plants during this period. Considering that summer is the period when vegetative development for fruit orchards takes place, the precautions to be taken for drought mitigation and meeting plant water needs are of great importance for agriculture.