Medical innovation, economic growth, and disaggregated greenhouse gas emissions: long-run associations with air pollution–related mortality in China

The Health Effects Institute reported that 28.4% of global air pollution-related deaths occur in China. While these deaths are primarily linked to exposure to air pollutants, public health outcomes are also related to broader macro-level factors such as economic and environmental conditions. Building on the theoretical framework of Fayissa and Gutema, this article investigates the long-run associations between greenhouse gases (LNGHG), economic growth (LNGDP), medical innovation (LNMEDIN), and air pollution–related deaths (LNAPD) in China over the period 1990–2021. This study uses the Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach as the main estimator, with Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square and canonical cointegrating regression for consistency checks, and it also accounts for structural breaks. The results confirm the existence of long-run cointegration among the variables. Specifically, LNGHG is positively associated with LNAPD, and the disaggregated analysis suggests that this association is mainly driven by carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). In contrast, LNGDP and LNMEDIN are negatively associated with LNAPD. In addition, the D2006 variable is negative and significant, indicating a downward shift in LNAPD after 2006. The results underscore the need to align climate mitigation with public health policies while sustaining economic growth and medical innovation.