A spatiotemporal analysis of the human-induced ecological deficit in the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia

This study scrutinizes and compares the impact of the human-induced ecological deficit in 27 countries from the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia, by measuring the inverted load capacity factor (ILCF), linked to 14 human factors driving this deficit, using the TOPSIS method, and explores the spillover effects and regional clustering patterns from 1994 to 2024. Final rankings show that high-income and petroleum-producing countries, such as Israel, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, are largely affected, with non-petroleum-producing countries like Jordan, Lebanon, and Palestine being notable exceptions, mainly due to their intense geopolitical conditions. Except for Turkey, countries with low incomes, such as Yemen, Nepal, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Pakistan, Syria, and Bangladesh, experience fewer effects. Countries like India, the Maldives, Algeria, Oman, Sri Lanka, and Iran are mid-ranking. Spatial analysis shows that countries highly impacted by ecological deficit, already identified by the TOPSIS method, exhibit high autocorrelation patterns and cluster together in the hotspot of ecological deficit, followed by mid-ranking positioning in the tied spot of ecological deficit, while those less affected occupy the low-low quadrant. Additionally, the three cross-country dependence tests reveal high spillover effects of ecological deficit across the MENASA region.