Does geopolitical risk accelerate climate vulnerability? New evidence from the European Green Deal

Abstract Geopolitical shocks complicate climate governance and may heighten climate vulnerability, but the magnitude, channels, and the offsetting role of green policy remain unclear. In this context, this study uses panel data for 41 countries from 1995 to 2021 and uses the European Green Deal (EGD) as a policy example to examine how policy intervention shapes the relationship between geopolitical risk and climate vulnerability, employing a two-way fixed-effects model. The main findings are: (1) geopolitical risk exacerbates climate vulnerability, primarily through negative impacts on food, water, health, and ecosystems; (2) the green transition and green investment effectively mitigate the adverse impact of geopolitical risk on climate vulnerability; and (3) by reinforcing these transition and investment channels, the EGD further reduces climate vulnerability associated with geopolitical conflicts. Based on these findings, policy should speed the green transition, mobilize private capital, and strengthen regional coordination to reduce the impact of geopolitical conflicts and enhance climate resilience.