Potential drivers of changes in predator and prey abundance at protected areas in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

What are the potential drivers of changes in population abundance in KwaZulu-Natal protected areas? To answer this question, we analyzed the data from a survey of seven species that are hunted regularly in the province: four predators (leopard, caracal, jackal and serval) and three prey species (blue duiker, red duiker and grey duiker). An eighth species (feral dogs) is analyzed in the GIS with regards to impact on prey species. A presence-absence survey was conducted in 2013, and compared with results from a previous survey in 1990. Distribution maps were developed indicating where species were increasing, decreasing, stable or absent. A spatially explicit system dynamics model was soft coupled with the GIS data to investigate whether population abundance is driven by hunting pressure or predator behaviour. The resulting model is a multi-species (eight species), multi-region (11 districts), predator-prey model that also estimates hunting pressure. The model was used to project forward different population scenarios. Existing populations are low relative to their unhunted (carrying capacity) levels. Habitat and climatic factors certainly do play a role in species distribution, and there is also evidence to suggest that hunting pressure and other anthropogenic influences are affecting the abundance of predator and prey species in KwaZulu-Natal. Additional investment in protected areas management in the province is crucial.