Conditional Support, Persistent Distrust: South Korean Attitudes Toward Denuclearization Negotiations with North Korea

For populations living under persistent nuclear threat, such as South Korea, denuclearization represents a direct pathway to peace. Yet the conditions under which South Koreans support denuclearization negotiations with North Korea remain underexplored. This study examines South Korean public attitudes toward denuclearization agreements using a pre-registered survey experiment with 2,400 nationally matched respondents. Participants evaluated a hypothetical agreement in which North Korea commits to dismantling its nuclear program in exchange for one of five concessions: regime security guarantees, sanctions relief, financial assistance, withdrawal of US troops and extended deterrence, or South Korea’s permanent commitment to nonproliferation. Support is highest for low-cost concessions and significantly lower when agreements impose substantial economic burdens or security trade-offs. Across all scenarios, trust in North Korea’s compliance remains uniformly low. These findings reveal the fragility of domestic support for denuclearization and highlight the importance of cost sensitivity, while pointing to persistent distrust as a key constraint on public support.