Global trends in ischemic heart disease among older adults (> 60 Years): analysis of epidemiological patterns and disease burden from 1990 through 2021

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a leading cause of chronic disability and death in older adults. This study conducted a comprehensive evaluation of IHD’s epidemiological burden within the elderly population (> 60 years). We sourced epidemiological data on IHD in older populations from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021), including annual estimates from 1990 to 2021. We analyzed IHD incidence trends and modeled temporal patterns with demographic and risk factor covariates to project country-specific incidence rates through 2050. In 2021, the global ASIR of IHD among older adults was 842.53 (95%UI: 723.83–988.24), the ASPR was 13,215.07 (95%UI: 11,145.82–15,377.32) per 100,000 population, the ASYR was 10,308.58 (95%UI: 9324.44–11,086.90) and the ASDR was 631.85 (95%UI: 567.73–680.74). From 1990 to 2021, the global AAPC for ASIR of IHD among older adults was -1.39(-1.4 to -1.37), the global AAPC for ASPR of IHD among older adults was -0.79(-0.81 to -0.76), the global AAPC for ASYR of IHD among older adults was -1.28(-1.37 to -1.19) and the global AAPC for ASDR of IHD among older adults was -1.2(-1.24 to -1.15). Based on the BAPC model projections for 2050, the ASIR for geriatric IHD is 731.91 (95%UI: 12.94–1548.98), and the incidence number is 17,429,738 95%UI: (375,811–36,359,908). By 2050, the ASPR for geriatric IHD is 15,814.77 (95%UI: 375.07–37,255.44), and the prevalence number is 359,096,904 (95%UI: 10,377,767–836,996,821). By 2050, the ASYR for geriatric IHD is 11,729.97 (95%UI: 0.00–30,701.31), and the YLLs number is 269,325,859 (95%UI: 0–69,7022,893). By 2050, the ASDR for geriatric IHD is 700.78 (0.00–1,784.46), and the deaths number is 17,448,912 (95%UI: 0–43,974,679). This study reveals the persistent and substantial global burden of IHD, with disparities shaped by age structure, regional sociodemographic development, and healthcare capacity. As populations continue to age and expand, IHD is projected to remain a major contributor to global morbidity and mortality.