Crop modeling and multivariate analysis of some bread wheat genotypes under drought stress

One important abiotic factor affecting wheat yield and endangering global food security is drought stress. Thus, to evaluate these genotypes based on their water usage efficiency and drought susceptibility index, the current study used 10 extremely diverse bread wheat genotypes over the winter seasons of 2023/2024 and 2024/2025. Additionally, the correlation coefficients between grain yield and its components are broken down into direct and indirect impacts, and the fitted model for grain yield and its components in both normal and drought-stressed environments was evaluated. For every variable examined, there were very significant differences between the genotypes under both favorable and stressful conditions. The genotypes G3, G6, and G8, which are distinguished by a high yield index (YI: >1), low drought susceptibility index (<1), and high yielding stability index, were more adaptive in both environments. While genotypes G2 and G9 were suited to normal conditions in both seasons, genotypes G4 and G7 were adapted to drought stress. Grain yield was directly positively impacted by the characteristics of number of tillers (NT), thousand kernel weight (TKW), and harvest index (HI). Under drought stress, spike length (SL) via TKW and HI, NT via number of spikes (NS) and HI, and TKW via HI had the greatest beneficial indirect effects. The fitted models of grain yield and its components under drought stress comprised biological yield (BYLD), NT, NS, HI, and plant height (PH), TKW, BYLD, HI, which contributed more to grain yield in the first and second seasons at 91.5% and 96.7%, respectively. According to the graphical genotype and environmental interaction (GGE-bioplot) focused scaling for comparison, G3 was the best and most promising genotype under these circumstances, followed by G6, G8, and G4. As a result, these genotypes are thought to be highly advantageous in wheat breeding studies.