Understanding how mobility and spatial disparities shape COVID-19 transmission under rotational and localized lockdowns

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as city-level curfews and local lockdowns were implemented to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission, yet their effectiveness at fine spatial scales remains uncertain. We evaluated a rotational lockdown policy in Bogotá, Colombia, applied at the locality level-an administrative aggregation of neighborhoods. Mobility patterns derived from mobile phone data were analyzed to quantify commuting changes, defined as relative variations in movement compared to a pre-intervention baseline (one month before restrictions). We distinguished between external mobility (between localities) and internal mobility (within localities). Using epidemiological surveillance data, we estimated the effective reproductive number ([Formula: see text]) and assessed its association with mobility reductions. A compartmental transmission model simulated counterfactual epidemic trajectories without NPIs, comparing predicted and observed infections, mortality, and [Formula: see text]. The intervention reduced inter-locality mobility by up to 40% but only minimally affected within-locality movement (median change < 5%), a descriptive result based on mobility data. Early lockdown cycles produced the largest declines in transmission (up to 27% reduction in cases), while subsequent rounds showed diminishing effects. Socioeconomic heterogeneity explained substantial spatial variability in transmission dynamics, revealing stronger associations between mobility and [Formula: see text] in localities with lower socioeconomic status. Our findings demonstrate that fine-scale NPIs can transiently reduce community transmission, but their impact depends on the spatial distribution of mobility and socioeconomic inequalities across the urban landscape.