From Connectivity to Commerce: A Multi-Technique Investigation of E-Commerce Drivers in Italy’s Regional Landscape

The research examines regional disparities in the diffusion of e-commerce among enterprises employing at least 10 people in Italy, using an integrated analytical framework that blends econometric modeling, machine learning, and network analysis. Instrumental Variable (IV) panel models overcome endogeneity arising from digital infrastructure, socioeconomic factors, and online business activity, with geographic slope as a suitable instrument for broadband penetration. Machine learning models—regularized regressions, random forests, and boosting—augment causal inference by registering nonlinear effects and sorting variable salience. The results, in all cases, emphasize internet use, household digital connectivity, and the prevalence of remote work as the most important predictors of the diffusion of e-commerce. Cluster analysis identifies regional digital profiles that distinguish northern-central regions from southern-insular regions, characterizing persistently distinct digital divides. The network analysis, in turn, identifies digital inclusion variables—such as internet penetration and ICT infrastructure—that occupy central positions within the entirety of the economic and technological interdependencies’ regime. Innovation and income levels, while practiced, hold peripheral positions, indicating that digital capacity, rather than economic affluence in the singular, drives online business participation. Italy’s case can particularly illustrate this beyond its national borders. Being a high-income economy with significant regional disparities, it reproduces challenges common elsewhere in the world, among which the cases of Spain, Germany, the USA, the Republic of Korea, and Japan come to mind, where regional disparities inhibit inclusive digital development. The Italian case presents, then, a transferable model for the diffusion of digital tools, the reduction in regional disparities, and the encouragement of economic integration. By synthesizing the causal, predictive, and systemic methodologies, the study offers a theoretical and practical response to digital transformation across diverse terrains.