Decadal urban thermal dynamics in a hyper-arid Gulf city: district-scale evidence from Doha, Qatar (2014–2024)

Arid cities face high surface warming due to rapid urbanization and limited vegetation, yet their spatiotemporal variability remains underexplored. This study investigates summer (May–September) land surface temperature (LST) dynamics, thermal hotspots and spectral index–LST correlations in Doha and Al Daayen, Qatar (2014–2024), using annual median Landsat composites processed in the Google Earth Engine (GEE). No statistically significant LST trend was detected (−0.05°C yr−1, p = 0.88), as high interannual variability (47.07–50.29°C) dominated the study period. Urban heat island (UHI) analysis delineated persistent hotspots (2.6–3.2°C) with weak urban–rural daytime contrasts. The bare soil index (BSI) exerted the largest magnitude of predictive influence (mean |SHAP| = 0.565°C) sustained across all 11 study years, though thermal regulation reflects spatially variable multi-feature interactions, as identified by SHAP-augmented XGBoost. Urban thermal conditions in Doha are spatially structured and land-surface sensitive, supporting integration of thermal performance criteria into Gulf urban development standards. Bare soil exposure is the most spatially pervasive thermal driver across the study area, with high bare soil coverage consistently amplifying LST; desert-edge development control and surface material regulation should therefore be prioritized in hyper-arid urban codes.Spatially clustered warming patterns confirm that a single city-wide thermal standard is insufficient; district-differentiated design and greening targets are required.Integrating surface temperature thresholds into Qatar's Global Sustainability Assessment System (GSAS) criteria would operationalize thermal resilience within existing urban development regulations. Bare soil exposure is the most spatially pervasive thermal driver across the study area, with high bare soil coverage consistently amplifying LST; desert-edge development control and surface material regulation should therefore be prioritized in hyper-arid urban codes. Spatially clustered warming patterns confirm that a single city-wide thermal standard is insufficient; district-differentiated design and greening targets are required. Integrating surface temperature thresholds into Qatar's Global Sustainability Assessment System (GSAS) criteria would operationalize thermal resilience within existing urban development regulations.