From property rights to livability: structural evolution and generative logic of social risk networks in China's urban renewal projects

Purpose Urban renewal projects (URPs) have become a high-risk domain within engineering projects, leading to social mass incidents that pose a serious threat to societal stability. Previous studies mainly focused on identifying types of risks and understanding their impact on project performance. In practice, stakeholders play an essential role in the occurrence and coordination of social risks and there is a lack of existing research on the link between stakeholders and social risks. Therefore, this study proposes a comprehensive risk management framework that integrated traditional risk management with stakeholders. Design/methodology/approach Based on 24 social risk cases of urban renewal projects in China, this study conducts an in-depth analysis of the “social risk-stakeholder” 2-mode network using social network analysis (SNA) and exponential random graph models (ERGM). Findings The core social risks in current URPs have shifted from past property rights conflicts to issues closely related to the public's daily life experience, such as “affecting surrounding population,” “environmental pollution,” “public participation” and “results unsatisfactory.” The role of original owners has undergone a fundamental transformation; alongside the government and developers, they have become core actors with strong agency. The media and residents' committees play unique coordinator roles in the Eastern governance context. The formation of the network is not determined by the preset identities of stakeholders but follows a “preferential attachment” mechanism, where social risks with high diffusivity and stakeholders with high involvement are more likely to attract new connections. Originality/value The theoretical contribution of this study lies in constructing a comprehensive analysis framework of “traditional risk management + stakeholders” and analyzing its network structure and internal generative mechanisms. At the practical level, the research findings provide clear guidance for the precise governance of social risks in URPs.