Does urbanization growth mitigate mortality rates associated with CRD?

Accumulating evidence underscores a significant correlation between urbanization and chronic respiratory disease (CRD). However, the influence of urbanization on CRD mortality remains inadequately characterized. This study examined urbanization levels and CRD mortality across temporal and spatial dimensions in Chongqing from 2012 to 2020 using GIS-based spatial autocorrelation analysis, multiple linear regression, and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models. Elevated urbanization levels exhibited a marked negative correlation with CRD mortality (β = −0.627). The urbanization-CRD mortality relationship displayed interval-specific variability: positive correlations in groups with urbanization levels of 30–40%, 80–90%, and 90–100%, whereas negative correlations characterized groups at 50–60% and 70–80%. Urbanization growth rates demonstrated an aggregate positive correlation with CRD mortality, with accelerated urbanization (annual growth rate of 6–9%) impeding mortality reduction efforts. An inverted U-shaped association between urbanization levels and CRD mortality was identified, along with significant spatial heterogeneity in CRD mortality risk distribution. Rapid urbanization was identified as a key factor limiting respiratory health improvements. These findings provide new insights into public health challenges in rapidly urbanizing areas and offer empirical support for developing differentiated health risk management strategies.