Assessing the effects of reusable waste bag policy on vinyl waste generation in South Korea

: The integration of reusable waste bags (RWBs) within South Korea's volume-based waste fee (VWF) system provides valuable insights for global strategies aimed at reducing vinyl and single-use plastic bag waste. While extensive literature has examined short-term impacts of plastic restrictions, few studies have assessed whether providing reusable alternatives under established incentive frameworks yields sustained reductions over the long term. This longitudinal analysis (2010-2023) across 25 Seoul local governments reveals a counterintuitive result: higher RWB sales volumes were positively associated with increased vinyl waste generation, whereas the number of retail stores selling RWBs showed no significant effect. Contrary to theoretical expectations and policy intent, the RWB policy did not achieve net reduction in vinyl waste and appears to have functioned more as a mandatory retail purchase than as a driver of genuine waste minimization.These findings highlight persistent challenges in preventing behavioral or material substitutions in waste streams, even in a policy environment with strong institutional support, retailer participation, and public acceptance. The significant contribution of this study lies in demonstrating that mandating reusable alternatives does not automatically translate to net environmental gains, offering a cautionary case for jurisdictions pursuing similar integrated approaches to single-use plastic reduction. For policymakers and waste management authorities, the results underscore the importance of monitoring end-use patterns, consumption shifts, and potential rebounds, and combining mandates with public awareness campaigns to enhance multi-use compliance and effectiveness.