Breeding for climate adaptation: genetic variation and genomic selection for drought response in Scots pine

Drought intensity and frequency are increasing under global warming in the boreal forests, and breeding for drought resistance will facilitate adaptation of new planting material to changing climate conditions. We used a tree-ring dataset of 559 individuals to study Scots pine genetic variation and the efficiency of genomic selection of drought-response traits (drought resistance, recovery and resilience), for the first time. From genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS), 31,101 SNPs were generated and used for the study. Significant genetic variation was detected for drought-response and other growth, wood-anatomy and wood density traits. Heritability estimates for wood-anatomical traits were higher than those for drought-response and growth traits. Genetic correlations between drought-response and wood-anatomical traits were generally high but mostly nonsignificant. In contrast, drought resistance and recovery showed positive and significant correlations with basal area increment and height. We found that the predictive ability and accuracy for drought-response traits were lower than those for wood-anatomical traits, and were comparable between GBLUP and ABLUP. Greater genetic gain per year can be achieved through genomic selection relative to pedigree-based selection if the generation interval is reduced. The positive genetic correlation between drought-response and growth traits will enable simultaneous selection for improved growth and increased drought resistant trees in Scots pine breeding through either pedigreed-based and genomic selection.