Ethnic diversity, deprivation, and populist radical right voting: A rural-urban perspective on AfD support in Germany

As Western societies become increasingly ethnically diverse, support for right-wing populist parties is growing across Europe. While this trend indicates heightened skepticism toward immigration, in Germany, it is often precisely rural areas with relatively few migrants that tend to show strong support for the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD). Urban areas with greater ethnic diversity, by contrast, present a more complex picture. While some ethnically diverse cities are characterized by low levels of support, others, such as Gelsenkirchen, have become strongholds of the AfD. In this paper, we examine how local ethnic diversity and individuals' perceived economic deprivation shape their support for the AfD. Adopting a spatial perspective, we investigate how these dynamics differ between urban and rural constituencies. We combine individual-level data from the 2025 German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) with constituency-level demographic data. Overall, we find support for Allport's contact theory, but only in rural areas, where higher levels of ethnic diversity are associated with lower support for the AfD. Moreover, feelings of cultural threat emerge as a primary driver of AfD voting in both rural and urban areas. These findings highlight the importance of considering spatial variation in ethnic diversity when explaining support for populist radical right parties.