Imported Mackerel Supply Shocks and Domestic Producer Price Formation: Analyzing the Price Transmission Effects of Norwegian Mackerel

Chub Mackerel is a key seafood product in South Korea, with the domestic supply significantly dependent on imports from Norway. However, recent supply shocks, including the Norwegian government's substantial reduction in catch quotas, are anticipated to increase market volatility and fundamentally alter domestic producer price formation. This study examines the price transmission effects of Norwegian mackerel on Korean landing prices utilizing an ARDL model. Monthly data from 2015 to 2024 were seasonally adjusted using the X-13 ARIMA-SEATS method, and stationarity was verified through ADF and PP unit-root tests. To ensure the robustness of the long-term relationship identified by the ARDL bounds test, FMOLS and DOLS estimators were additionally applied. Empirical results demonstrate a statistically significant and positive price transmission from Norway to South Korea. Specifically, a 1% increase in the import price of Norwegian mackerel results in a 0.91% increase in the domestic producer price in the long run. The analysis also reveals a short-term effect of 0.38, indicating that the impact of external supply shocks intensifies over time. These findings suggest that imported mackerel is a determinative factor in domestic price formation. Accordingly, domestic supply management and production policies should incorporate real-time monitoring of Norwegian catch conditions.