Quantitative 3D seismic attribute analysis and probabilistic workflow for de-risking Badenian carbonate buildups in the Pannonian Basin, Hungary

Carbonate buildups host nearly 40-60% of the world's conventional hydrocarbon reserves, yet their recognition on seismic data remains difficult due to morphological similarity with volcanic edifices, erosional remnants, and tectonic highs. Existing workflows for isolated carbonate buildup (ICB) detection formalize criteria based on regional context, morphology, and internal geometry, but they were largely developed for long-lived, tectonically stable settings and are less effective in geologically complex basins. In the Pannonian Basin, carbonate growth was short-lived, syn-tectonic, and modified by rapid burial and diagenesis, producing smaller and less seismically expressive buildups. A modified, more quantitative approach is therefore required. We apply a refined ICB detection workflow to 3D seismic data from the Badenian (Middle Miocene) succession of the Pannonian Basin, Hungary. The modification eliminates non-essential criteria and introduces new diagnostics, including integrated seismic attributes (instantaneous amplitude, phase, pseudo-relief), crossline and inline consistency, and time-slice signatures. Horizon flattening, calibrated with well logs, cores, and calcareous nannoplankton biostratigraphy, enabled robust interpretation of carbonate morphology and platform evolution. Fifteen candidate ICBs were identified and ranked probabilistically: four probable (> 55%), six possible (45-55%), and five disregarded (< 45%), yielding a mean probability of success of 41% and approximately six high-potential prospects. Biostratigraphic evidence independently confirms a rapid drowning event, marked by subsidence-driven deepening from ~ 30 m to ~ 200 m and a transition to open-marine conditions. This attribute-driven, probabilistic workflow reduces interpretive subjectivity and offers a transferable methodology for predictive reservoir characterization in the Central Paratethys and comparable basins worldwide.