Ageing of the Kimberley Aboriginal population and indicative estimates of the number of people living with dementia: 2021–51

Aboriginal populations in the Kimberley region of Western Australia are increasingly living well into older age. However, with population ageing comes a known increase in the prevalence of age-related conditions, including dementia. This paper examines ageing and dementia for Aboriginal people in the Kimberley 2021–51. Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data (2011, 2016 and 2021) were modelled using the Wilson-Grossman variation of the Hamilton-Perry projection method (Hamilton and Perry 1962; Wilson and Grossman 2022) to estimate the size and age structure of the Aboriginal population in the Kimberley. To determine the number of people living with dementia during 2021–51, estimates were modelled from prevalence rates reported in a Kimberley dementia cohort study by Smith et al. (2008) and self-reported rates from the 2021 Census. It was found that the Aboriginal population in the Kimberley is projected to grow by approximately 45% for the period 2021–51 from 20,245 people to 29,276, with the greatest growth in older age groups, particularly 85 years and older. Dementia prevalence scenarios (5%, 10% decrease, fixed, 5% and 10% increase) project the number of Aboriginal people living with dementia in the Kimberley will at least double by 2051. In the scenario of a 10% increase in dementia prevalence, a 3.5-fold increase is projected. As part of research knowledge exchange, a data literacy session was conducted with the Kimberley Healthy Adults Project: Indigenous Elders Data Governance group, where these data were presented and Elders' advice around sensemaking and interpretation was sought. Elders emphasised their concerns around the findings and highlighted the important implications of these data in the planning and delivery of health, social and aged care services, workforce, and policy, now and into the future.