Uncovering nonlinear causal relationship between public environmental concern and air pollution in China using convergent cross mapping

Previous studies have investigated the relationship between public environmental concern (PEC) and air pollution using annual-scale data. Due to the nonlinear and abrupt nature of public perception and response to sudden events, traditional methods may obscure the true causal relationship between PEC and air pollution. In this paper, we extend the measurement of PEC and use the Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) to analyze its causal relationship with air pollution. Based on daily average PEC, AQI and PM2.5 data from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2024 for 115 prefecture-level cities in China, we find that the relationship between PEC and air pollution exhibits nonlinear and weak coupling characteristics. At the same time, cities showing a significant causal effect of PEC on air pollution are predominantly situated in the North China Plain and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, regions characterized by relatively high levels of economic development. Compared to PEC affecting air pollution, air pollution significantly influences PEC in more cities. This result implies a reversed causal relationship in most cities, whereby air pollution is not alleviated by increased public environmental concern, but instead stimulates greater public attention to environmental issues through its adverse health impacts. PEC is effective as a pollution mitigation strategy only in a limited number of economically advanced cities. It is recommended that relevant departments introduce feasible policies that facilitate public feedback and reinforce the enforcement of environmental regulations and penalties. Relevant agencies should develop a more effective response framework, manage public attention data in a systematic and scientific manner, and explore region-specific approaches to utilize public environmental awareness to mitigate air pollution.