PREDICTIVE/PROGNOSTIC ANALYSES IN TURKISH NATIONAL ORTHOPEDIC JOURNALS: A BIBLIOMETRIC AND CONTENT ANALYSIS OF DERGIPARK ARCHIVES (2010–2025)

Objective:Predictive and prognostic models are increasingly used to support clinical decision-making; however, their prevalence and reporting quality in the national orthopedic literature remain unclear. This study aimed to bibliometrically evaluate the frequency, temporal trends, and statistical methods of publications containing predictive analyses in orthopedic-related journals archived on DergiPark between 2010 and 2025.Material and Methods:This retrospective bibliometric and content analysis screened orthopedic-related journals archived on DergiPark. Following technical eligibility assessment for automated and reproducible data extraction, two journals—Acta Orthopaedica et Traumatologica Turcica (AOTT) and Pamukkale Medical Journal (PATD)—were included. All issues published between 2010 and 2025 were automatically screened. Article titles were evaluated using predefined Turkish and English predictive keywords via regular expressions. Candidate articles were manually reviewed by examining titles, abstracts, and keywords to confirm the predictive or prognostic analyses. Predictive methods were classified as Survival/Cox, ROC/AUC, Logistic Regression, or Other/Unclear. Results were reported descriptively as counts (n) and percentages (%).Results: A total of 4,120 publications were screened (AOTT: 3,042; PATD: 1,078). Title-based screening identified 90 candidate articles, of which 65 were confirmed to contain predictive analyses. Predictive publications accounted for 0.43% of all AOTT articles and 4.82% of PATD articles, corresponding to an overall rate of 1.58%. Methodological classification showed that 37 publications (56.9%) were categorized as Other/Unclear due to insufficient specification. Survival/Cox analysis was identified in 17 publications (26.2%), ROC/AUC analysis in 6 (9.2%), and logistic regression in 5 (7.7%). No nomogram-based predictive models were identified. An increase in predictive publications was observed after 2021, with the highest number reported in 2025 (n=12).Conclusion:Predictive analyses remain infrequent in national orthopedic journals archived on DergiPark, and methodological reporting is often inadequate. Wider adoption of standardized reporting frameworks such as TRIPOD is essential to improve transparency and clinical applicability.