Transition of the transport sector in a mining region: a cross-impact-balance analysis

Abstract Cross-Impact Balance (CIB) analysis has proven to be a valuable approach for modeling complex socio-technological-economic systems. Traditionally, it has been applied to well-defined systems characterized by a high level of aggregation. The main objective of our study is to extend the scope of the CIB method to less aggregated contexts that incorporate greater detail. Specifically, we demonstrate its expanded applicability through the example of transport system development and restructuring in a region composed of multiple subregions. The focus lies on identifying possible development pathways that account for interactions between measures implemented within individual subregions. Our findings highlight both the value and the necessity of tools for soft-linking and drill-down analysis.