Assessing future climate change impacts on marine renewable energy resources in the UK under a high emission scenario with CMIP6 and SWAN

Marine resources such as wind and wave are expected to play an important role in decarbonizing the UK’s energy network, as part of the global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. However, potential increases in global weather systems variability due to climate change cast doubt on the long-term sustainability of offshore renewable development and the ambitions of the UK government to rapidly expand current capacity. As such, growing interest in co-located wind–wave systems is being paid as a means of enhancing the climate resilience of the future energy network. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on wind and wave resources in the UK from 2015 to 2100, using available CMIP6 datasets and numerical wave modelling using SWAN. In doing so, an initial assessment of the potential for co-located infrastructure is undertaken to inform future research into its role in strengthening the climate resilience of ocean renewable generation. The results reveal gradual reductions in resource availability under a high emission scenario, with statistically significant annual trends detected across most of the study area. Reductions in average annual wind energy reach -16.0% in coastal areas of Northern Ireland towards the end of the century, while decreases in wave energy of more than 25% are projected in certain regions of the North Sea. These trends are primarily driven by seasonal reductions during summer months, with decreases in average wind power during these months as much as -29.0% and decreases in wave power of over -40%. In addition, increases in resource variability from the mid-century onwards suggest that climate change is likely to negatively affect the availability of the UK’s wind and wave energy resources in the long term. • The impacts of climate change on wind and wave resources are quantified. • A numerical wave model ensemble is created for the UK. • Gradual decreases in energy potential for both resources are detected. • Reductions are driven by decreases during summer months. • Climate change is likely to destabilise both wind and wave resources.