Species-specific growth models inform sustainable management of Rhizophora mangle in the Colombian Caribbean

Abstract Mangrove ecosystems provide crucial ecological services but face threats from climate change and unsustainable resource use. This highlights the need for science-based forest management initiatives. Cispatá Bay, located in the Colombian Caribbean, hosts the country’s only mangrove under a regulated sustainable use model. Yet, current management guidelines rely on generalized silvicultural criteria, such as a uniform minimum logging diameter (MLD) of 10 cm and a 14 year cutting cycle (CC), which do not reflect species-specific growth dynamics, potentially compromising sustainability. This study aims to improve sustainable forest management in Cispatá Bay by developing species-specific growth models for Rhizophora mangle , a dominant and heavily harvested species. We introduce a novel methodological framework for sustainable forest management in mangrove ecosystems, integrating dendrochronology and biometric modeling to derive ecological management parameters. We combined tree-ring data from 26 dead individuals with forest inventory measurements and applied nonlinear mixed-effects modeling, accounting for autocorrelation and growth eccentricity. The resulting models yielded biologically meaningful ontogenetic traits, including a maximum mean diameter (A max ) of 40.35 cm, a weighted average growth rate (WAGR) of 0.42 cm year⁻ 1 , a lifespan (t span ) of 95.12 years, and a halflife (t 0.5 ) of 41.09 years. Additionally, we estimated an MLD of 24 cm and a CC of 20 years—both substantially higher than current thresholds. These findings suggest that continued application of generalized metrics may compromise forest regeneration, reduce volume recovery, and undermine long-term sustainability. By integrating dendrochronological techniques with biometric modeling, this research provides a replicable framework for evidence-based forest governance in mangroves.