Economic, environmental, and spatial impacts of Brazil's Minha Casa Minha Vida program

This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of Brazil's flagship housing program, ' Minha Casa, Minha Vida ' (PMCMV), examining its economic, environmental, and spatial impacts on municipal development. Using a two-stage empirical approach that combines difference-in-differences methods for staggered adoption with spatial econometrics, we analyze municipal panel data from 2005 to 2019. Results indicate that treated municipalities experienced significant economic gains, with per capita GDP increasing by approximately 7.7% and formal wages rising by 5.6%. The program also exhibited countercyclical properties during Brazil's 2014–2016 recession, sustaining local economic activity despite national contraction. Environmentally, we observe a net expansion of natural areas, suggesting potential benefits from housing formalization. These findings demonstrate that large-scale housing programs can function as multi-dimensional development tools. Policy implications highlight the importance of regional tailoring, environmental integration, and governance. • Program increased treated municipalities’ GDP per capita by 7.7% and formal wages by 5.6%. • PMCMV acted as an implicit stabilizer during the 2014–2016 Brazilian recession. • The program expanded natural areas, countering urban sprawl. • Economic and environmental benefits spilled over across municipalities.