Comparative Review of Global Methane Budget Estimation: Top-Down, Bottom-Up, and Integrated Approaches

Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas, and accurately estimating its global budget is essential for climate change mitigation. This review provides a comparative synthesis of top-down, bottom-up, and integrated approaches for quantifying methane emissions and sinks, with a particular focus on the role of remote sensing. Top-down methods, leveraging satellite observations from instruments like GOSAT and TROPOMI within atmospheric inversion frameworks (Bayesian, 4D-Var), provide observationally constrained, spatially integrated fluxes, reducing global budget uncertainty to ±5–10%. However, they face challenges in source attribution and rely heavily on transport model accuracy. Conversely, bottom-up approaches, including process-based models (e.g., CLM, DNDC) and emission inventories (e.g., EDGAR), offer detailed, sector-specific insights but are prone to underestimating emissions from super-emitters and diffuse sources like wetlands, with uncertainties often exceeding ±20–40% for individual sectors. Key persistent discrepancies between the two approaches are largest for natural sources (e.g., a 20–40 Tg yr−1 gap for tropical wetlands). Integrated approaches, which synergize top-down atmospheric constraints with bottom-up inventory data, are emerging as the most robust methodology, effectively narrowing the global budget gap and improving confidence. Recent advancements in satellite missions (e.g., MethaneSAT), machine learning algorithms for plume detection, and high-resolution inversion models are transforming monitoring capabilities. However, challenges remain in harmonizing datasets, representing complex microbial processes in models, and expanding observational coverage in data-scarce tropical regions. This review concludes by outlining a future path centered on hybrid inversion frameworks, AI-driven source attribution, and cross-disciplinary collaboration to deliver the actionable methane budgets needed for effective climate policy.