Macroeconomic factors affecting honey exports of Türkiye

This research aims to examine the macro determinants of honey exports in Türkiye using monthly data from 2016 to 2025. The methodology used is the ARDL bounds testing approach. The dependent variable is the volume of honey exports. The macroeconomic variables include the real effective exchange rate, the deposit interest rate, the producer price index, and the industrial production index. The results indicate long-run cointegration between Türkiye’s honey exports and these macroeconomic determinants. The results show that, in the long run, the real effective exchange rate and the industrial production index are statistically significant and positively associated with honey exports. This indicates that these macroeconomic determinants play a significant role in determining exports. The results, however, show a negative relationship between the producer price index and honey exports. This indicates that exports are constrained by price levels. The interest rate is found to have a positive effect on honey exports, indicating that financial conditions, not just interest rates, influence exports. The short-run results show that honey exports are determined by their own lag, indicating convergence over time. The results indicate that honey exports are influenced by factors beyond volume alone.