A Novel Time-Series Algorithm for Detecting Shifting Cultivation Cycles and Fallow Periods

Shifting cultivation (SC) is a predominant land use across the tropics, feeding hundreds of millions of marginalized people, causing significant deforestation in tropical regions. A key question is how to realize rapid and large-scale identification of the spatial distribution, cycle numbers, and fallow periods of SC. Building the LandCycler algorithm that fully considers the inter-annual cycle of SC based on Landsat imagery from 1988 to 2020, we identify the distribution and fallow period of SC in Southeast Asia, including Assam in India and Yunnan Province in China. The results show that the LandCycler for the identification of SC is satisfactory (producer’s accuracy 82.12% and user’s accuracy 81.37%), and the accuracy in detecting the average cycle number, and calculating the average fallow period is 83.71%, and 96%, respectively. We found that the total area of SC is as high as 16.79 × 104 km2 in Southeast Asia, which uses almost 10% of the total forests. Meanwhile, the average cycle number and the average fallow period of SC are two times and 10 years, respectively. More than 98% of SC has repeated deforestation four times or less. The shorter the distance from settlements and the distance from roads, the larger the cycle number of SC. Although there was no significant correlation between elevation and slope and the cycle number of SC, SCs were mainly distributed at slopes of 18 ± 5° and elevations of 800 ± 300 m. These findings provide effective tools for sustainable agroforestry management as well as for global SC mapping.