Rethinking seed selection based on climate matching during restoration: geography, soils, and climate explain species-specific mortality

Implicit in the construction of seed transfer zones (STZs) are the assumptions that plant populations are adapted to their home climates and that transferring native seed across climate gradients risks maladaptation and poor performance.However, plants are adapted to multiple aspects of their environments that are often excluded from STZ development.Here, we used models integrating geographic distance, climate distance, and soil metrics to predict plant mortality in an experimental garden for three restoration-relevant species in the southwestern United States: Bouteloua curtipendula, Heterotheca villosa, and Sporobolus cryptandrus.Overall, climate distance explained mortality better than geographic distance, but increasing climate distance was not consistently associated with higher mortality.In contrast, mortality always increased with geographic distance.Species responded idiosyncratically to environmental gradients such as soil texture and pH, indicating that incorporating site-specific variables beyond climate can improve predictions of survival.Finally, seed sources of H. villosa from hotter, drier climates exhibited improved survival during abnormally hot, dry conditions at the experimental site, whereas no consistent pattern emerged for the two grass species.Collectively, our results suggest that seeding strategies extending beyond climate matching alone may better support restoration outcomes when species-specific guidance is unavailable.