Hydrologically relevant bias correction of GPM-IMERG: Performance across quantiles in upland tropical watershed

• Identifies systematic monthly biases in satellite rainfall over upland tropical basins, affecting operations and risk analysis. • Benchmarks linear, nonlinear, and optimization-based corrections using distribution-aware diagnostics across quantiles. • Linear methods best recover central tendency; nonlinear and optimization approaches strengthen upper-tail fidelity and extremes. • Proposes a staged workflow frequency/threshold adjustment followed by shape correction for hydrologically realistic, operational use. • Outlines limitations and future directions, encouraging sub-monthly testing, regime-aware calibration, and cross-validated tuning to enhance transferability. Satellite-based rainfall (GPM-IMERG) exhibits systematic monthly biases in upland tropical watersheds, undermining reservoir operations and flood-risk estimates. This study tests whether five bias-correction methods, Linear Scaling (LS), Linear Regression (LR), Genetic Algorithm-based Correction Factor (GA-CF), Local Intensity Scaling (LOCI), and Power Transformation (PT), improve monthly totals and extreme-sensitive quantiles over the Lesti Sub-Watershed (2001-2020). Performance was evaluated using the correlation coefficient (R), Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), the ratio of the root-mean-square error to the standard deviation of observations (RSR), and quantile diagnostics (Q25-Q75, Q90-Q99). All methods enhance skill; LS provides the best overall monthly agreement (NSE = 0.84, R = 0.92, RSR = 0.39). LR and LOCI yield intermediate improvements by correcting level/variance and wet-day frequency, respectively. GA-CF and PT show greater benefits for the upper tail of the rainfall distribution, reducing underestimation beyond Q90 and better reproducing hallmark wet years. The contribution presents a distribution-aware, monthly-scale comparison and directly evaluates the staged LOCI–PT workflow, while identifying GA-CF as a promising standalone alternative for improving upper-tail rainfall behavior. Limitations include five gauges, month-wise parameterization, and evaluation at the monthly aggregation level; future work should assess sub-monthly behavior, regime-aware calibration (ENSO/IOD), and multi-objective tuning under more rigorous validation frameworks to improve generalizability across upland tropical watersheds.

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Publication Details

Journal
Results in Engineering
Published
2026-04-27
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rineng.2026.110760
Primary Topic
Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
Type
article
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article

Hydrologically relevant bias correction of GPM-IMERG: Performance across quantiles in upland tropical watershed

Ussy Andawayanti, Ery Suhartanto, Azhar Adi Darmawan, Fifi Damayanti et al.
Results in Engineering
Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
article

Hydrologically relevant bias correction of GPM-IMERG: Performance across quantiles in upland tropical watershed

Ussy Andawayanti, Ery Suhartanto, Azhar Adi Darmawan, Fifi Damayanti, Rizki Tri Utami, Rahmah Dara Lufira
article en

Abstract

• Identifies systematic monthly biases in satellite rainfall over upland tropical basins, affecting operations and risk analysis. • Benchmarks linear, nonlinear, and optimization-based corrections using distribution-aware diagnostics across quantiles. • Linear methods best recover central tendency; nonlinear and optimization approaches strengthen upper-tail fidelity and extremes. • Proposes a staged workflow frequency/threshold adjustment followed by shape correction for hydrologically realistic, operational use. • Outlines limitations and future directions, encouraging sub-monthly testing, regime-aware calibration, and cross-validated tuning to enhance transferability. Satellite-based rainfall (GPM-IMERG) exhibits systematic monthly biases in upland tropical watersheds, undermining reservoir operations and flood-risk estimates. This study tests whether five bias-correction methods, Linear Scaling (LS), Linear Regression (LR), Genetic Algorithm-based Correction Factor (GA-CF), Local Intensity Scaling (LOCI), and Power Transformation (PT), improve monthly totals and extreme-sensitive quantiles over the Lesti Sub-Watershed (2001-2020). Performance was evaluated using the correlation coefficient (R), Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), the ratio of the root-mean-square error to the standard deviation of observations (RSR), and quantile diagnostics (Q25-Q75, Q90-Q99). All methods enhance skill; LS provides the best overall monthly agreement (NSE = 0.84, R = 0.92, RSR = 0.39). LR and LOCI yield intermediate improvements by correcting level/variance and wet-day frequency, respectively. GA-CF and PT show greater benefits for the upper tail of the rainfall distribution, reducing underestimation beyond Q90 and better reproducing hallmark wet years. The contribution presents a distribution-aware, monthly-scale comparison and directly evaluates the staged LOCI–PT workflow, while identifying GA-CF as a promising standalone alternative for improving upper-tail rainfall behavior. Limitations include five gauges, month-wise parameterization, and evaluation at the monthly aggregation level; future work should assess sub-monthly behavior, regime-aware calibration (ENSO/IOD), and multi-objective tuning under more rigorous validation frameworks to improve generalizability across upland tropical watersheds.

Results in EngineeringVol. 30
University of Brawijaya (ID), Universitas Tribhuwana Tunggadewi (ID), Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang (ID)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 18%
Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies
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