Are fishing decisions flexible? Participation, species target, and landing location choices in the U.S. west coast coastal pelagic species fishery

This study analyzes how changes in forage species distribution affected Coastal Pelagic Species (CPS) vessel participation and target decisions in the U.S. West Coast fishery over the 2013–2017 period. We develop discrete choice models for the choice of species targeted: Pacific sardine ( Sardinops sagax ), market squid ( Doryteuthis opalescens ), Northern anchovy ( Engraulis mordax ), Chub ( Scomber japonicus ) and Jack ( Trachurus symmetricus ) mackerels or other Non-CPS species, and landing port during a specific day. We estimate separate nested logit models by fleet segments, which were defined previously using cluster analysis on vessel attributes such as fished area, average annual revenue, CPS diversification, and degree of reliance on CPS. An environmentally informed species distribution model (SDM) is used as a proxy for expected availability of forage species. We find that harvesters demonstrate flexibility in their fishing strategies in response to environmental and economic conditions. The study suggests that while some decisions are state-dependent, harvesters still have the capacity for adaptation. These insights are crucial for understanding the resilience of fisheries in the face of environmental variability and for informing management strategies to support sustainable fishing into the future. • Flexible fishing strategies in response to environmental and economic conditions • Discrete choice models link target, location, and participation decisions • Novel use of species distribution models as a proxy for availability • Fleet segments adapt differently: “on the move” vs. “in place” strategies • Findings inform fishery resilience and climate-adaptive management