Russia's Development Strategy for Rare and Rare Earth Metals Industry: The Geopolitics of Technological Sovereignty and Supply Chain Self-Reliance

This study analyzes Russia's rare metals and rare earth elements (REE) industry development strategy within the context of global supply chain restructuring, employing the theoretical frameworks of “weaponized interdependence” and “technological sovereignty.” Amid a global critical minerals supply chain heavily dependent on China, Russia approved its “2030 Implementation Plan” in December 2025, setting targets to reduce import dependency from 75% to 48% and to become a top-five global producer. To this end, Russia is pursuing the construction of a complete value chain centered on Rosatom, a transition from raw material exports to a deep processing system, and the diversification of international cooperation with countries such as China and India. While this strategy carries significant geopolitical implications - namely, countering Western sanctions and forming alternative supply chains - key challenges remain, including dependence on external core technologies, investment constraints, and limited domestic demand. The outcome of this strategy will have a critical impact on the competitive dynamics between the Russia-China axis and the Western alliance bloc.