Long-term urban resilience trajectories following earthquakes

Disasters have a sustained impact on cities, highlighting the need for long-term urban resilience beyond immediate recovery. This resilience encompasses not only immediate rebuilding efforts but also extensive urban development, aimed at making cities better and stronger. This study provides a comparative analysis of long-term resilience trajectories in Christchurch City, New Zealand, and Fukushima City, Japan, both of which experienced significant earthquakes in 2011. Data from 2010 to 2020 were used to analyze the resilience trajectories of urban systems in terms of social, economic, and infrastructure dimensions. Our findings demonstrate two distinct long-term resilience patterns: Christchurch experienced a synchronized recovery, with reconstruction supporting economic and social recovery to pre-disaster levels by 2017. Conversely, Fukushima City, facing population shrinkage, showed separation between high infrastructure investment and social recovery. These results emphasize the contextual limitations of the default prediction that infrastructure provision promotes population growth. Physical reconstruction, though a necessary precondition, remains insufficient to secure resilience in shrinking regions. The study advocates for a shift in post-disaster planning from uniform growth models to context-specific strategies prioritizing social adaptability and managed shrinkage.