Wave energy assessment in the Pacific Northwest under historical and future climate conditions: a case study of the Canadian and U.S. coasts

Abstract This study evaluates the wave energy potential along the Vancouver–Washington–Oregon coastline under different climate change scenarios. Wind and bathymetric data obtained from ECMWF and GEBCO databases were used for the 2000–2015 baseline period, and wave simulations were performed using the MIKE 21 SW model. An unstructured mesh was employed, and model sensitivity to key parameters, including bed roughness, depth-induced wave breaking, and white capping dissipation, was assessed through nine simulation runs. The results indicate that variations in bed roughness and wave breaking exert limited influence on model performance, whereas the inclusion of white capping improves simulation accuracy. Future wave conditions were projected for the 2006–2100 period under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The analysis suggests that under the RCP8.5 scenario, increased wind intensity is associated with higher wave power levels compared with present conditions and the RCP4.5 scenario. Furthermore, site-specific analysis at three representative locations along the Vancouver coast indicates that wave energy availability tends to peak during autumn. The findings provide a detailed assessment of wave energy variability under changing climate conditions and offer insights for long-term coastal renewable energy planning.