Power-to-fuel pathways for maritime decarbonization: Techno-economic analysis of E-ammonia and E-methanol

Decarbonizing maritime transport requires scalable zero- and near-zero-emission fuels that meet high energy density and long-range requirements. This study evaluates e-ammonia and e-methanol produced via Power-to-Ammonia (PtA) and Power-to-Methanol (PtM) pathways for climate-neutral shipping in the Netherlands, aligned with the International Maritime Organization and FuelEU Maritime targets. A scenario-based techno-economic model for 2030 and 2050 incorporates offshore renewable electricity, electrolysis–synthesis integration, storage, and grid constraints. Results indicate that both pathways are technically feasible but remain costlier than conventional fuels. By 2030, PtA and PtM could supply 9.7 PJ and 8.9 PJ, respectively, contributing to alternative fuel demand. However, cost parity is not achieved, even with EU ETS revenues. Sensitivity analysis shows that competitiveness by 2050 depends on renewable expansion, optimized Power Purchase Agreements, and supportive policy frameworks. The findings provide insights for designing effective Power-to-Fuel strategies for maritime decarbonization. • Power-to-ammonia and -methanol pathways assessed for maritime decarbonization. • High green hydrogen costs limit near-term deployment despite policy support. • By 2030, e-fuels remain 2–4 times costlier than very low sulfur fuel oil. • By 2050, cost reductions depend on scale-up, innovation, and policy support. • Hybrid wind–solar systems improve reliability and reduce production costs.