Comparative Analysis of MODIS-Derived Spectral Indices for Drought Monitoring: A Case Study of the Konya Basin, Türkiye

Agricultural drought monitoring in semi-arid regions requires reliable indicators that capture vegetation, moisture, and thermal stress. This study presents a comparative evaluation of multiple MODIS-derived spectral indices for agricultural drought monitoring in the Konya Basin, Türkiye, covering the period 2020–2025. Vegetation-, moisture-, and temperature-based indices are analyzed in terms of their temporal evolution, interrelationships, and broader consistency with independently reported drought information. Correlation analysis is used to assess redundancy among indices, while dynamic time warping is employed to evaluate overall temporal similarity under non-linear alignment, and Granger causality analysis is applied to examine statistical temporal dependencies among selected indices. Independent national and global drought information is used for qualitative validation. The results demonstrate that comparative multi-index analysis can be used to distinguish redundant from complementary indices in drought monitoring of semi-arid agricultural environments.