Dynamics and Development Prospects of Kazakhstan–Azerbaijan Trade Relations in the Context of the Caspian Sea

This article examines the current state and future prospects of trade relations between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan within the Caspian Sea region. Using foreign trade turnover data for the period 2005–2023, long-term trends and short-term economic fluctuations are evaluated through the Hodrick–Prescott and Baxter–King filters. The BDS test identifies the existence of non-random patterns and structural dependence in the time series. The results indicate a sustained upward tendency in bilateral trade relations, accompanied by periodic fluctuations shaped by regional and global economic developments. In light of these findings, the study offers several policy recommendations, including the modernization of the Baku and Aktau ports, the simplification of customs procedures, and the expansion of investment and transport-logistics cooperation between the two countries.