Why do elite athletes consider leaving their sports? Longitudinal evidence on the development of dropout considerations

Dropout from elite sport poses a critical challenge to both athletes and sport systems, particularly when it occurs despite ongoing competitive potential. While performance development remains the system's central selection criterion, personal and environmental factors may also influence athletes’ dropout considerations. This study investigated how dropout considerations evolve over time and which factors may contribute to these changes directly or indirectly via perceived performance development. Using a longitudinal design with two measurement points (T1 and T2), we analyzed survey responses from N = 235 German elite athletes (M = 17.5 years; 46.4% female). Change-score analyses indicated that dropout considerations were dynamic, with individual patterns reflecting both intensification and decline. Regression models predicted dropout considerations at T2 controlled for baseline dropout considerations at T1. Results showed that mental health problems, dissatisfaction with training conditions, and time and role conflicts were directly associated with increased dropout considerations, whereas burden of injury and social support showed indirect associations via perceived performance development. Motivation played a dual role, predicting dropout considerations both directly and indirectly via perceived performance development. These findings highlight key targets for preventive intervention and underscore the importance of addressing psychosocial and environmental factors alongside athletic performance.