Climatology and Trends in Spatial Scales of Extreme Precipitation Over Land in the Contiguous US

Abstract Extreme precipitation (EP) poses a severe risk under a changing climate. Here we use daily gridded precipitation data (1980–2024) and a connected‐component labeling algorithm to characterize the climatology and regional trends of daily EP spatial scale over land in the contiguous United States (US). EP event sizes follow a logarithmic distribution; thus, the largest‐area EP events disproportionately drive total yearly EP area. These largest‐area events exhibit different seasonality and have higher average intensities than smaller events. We find a widespread decline in small‐area EP events and overall days with EP, concentrating EP into fewer days per year but with larger areas on those days. In the eastern US, we find a rising frequency of large‐area events, driving significant growth in yearly EP area. These findings highlight the importance of spatially informed analyses in understanding the changing nature of EP for better climate risk assessments, adaptation planning, and economic loss projections.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2026-04-25
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2025gl120662
Primary Topic
Climate variability and models
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Climatology and Trends in Spatial Scales of Extreme Precipitation Over Land in the Contiguous US

Adam H. Sobel, Trinish Chatterjee, Danielle Touma, Radley M. Horton
Geophysical Research Letters
Climate variability and models
article

Climatology and Trends in Spatial Scales of Extreme Precipitation Over Land in the Contiguous US

Adam H. Sobel, Trinish Chatterjee, Danielle Touma, Radley M. Horton
article en

Abstract

Abstract Extreme precipitation (EP) poses a severe risk under a changing climate. Here we use daily gridded precipitation data (1980–2024) and a connected‐component labeling algorithm to characterize the climatology and regional trends of daily EP spatial scale over land in the contiguous United States (US). EP event sizes follow a logarithmic distribution; thus, the largest‐area EP events disproportionately drive total yearly EP area. These largest‐area events exhibit different seasonality and have higher average intensities than smaller events. We find a widespread decline in small‐area EP events and overall days with EP, concentrating EP into fewer days per year but with larger areas on those days. In the eastern US, we find a rising frequency of large‐area events, driving significant growth in yearly EP area. These findings highlight the importance of spatially informed analyses in understanding the changing nature of EP for better climate risk assessments, adaptation planning, and economic loss projections.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 53(8)
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US), Columbia University (US), The University of Texas at Austin (US)
National Science Foundation, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 10%
Climate variability and models
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