When Will China Expand? A Theory of Expansion Inhibition Based on Cognitive Political Economy

Conventional international relations theory assumes power transition sparks hegemonic conflict. This paper introduces a cognitive political economy framework linking ideographic writing to expansion restraint. Using Qing fiscal records and Japan’s Meiji Restoration as natural experiments, we show ideographic systems create prohibitive assimilation costs and intergenerational reputational constraints that inhibit expansion. This challenges universal models of great power rivalry and offers a structurally grounded explanation for China’s historical strategic restraint, with broad implications for cross-civilizational strategic analysis